Sources suggest that lower grades than perhaps they’ve expected will be the order of the day when students open their GCSE results on Thursday. It’s indicated to be part of the Government’s attempts to combat the ‘grade inflation’ that they identified over the teacher-assessed pandemic assessment period in 2020 and 2021, and it’s likely that it will lead to a surge in grade appeals from learners who haven’t achieved the results they may have been tipped for and may have achieved in previous assessment years.

The exams watchdog has been instructed to clamp down on the amount of top grades this year after teacher-assessed results in 2021 reached a national all-time peak. It could see the number of results marked Grade 7 or above (the equivalent of an A/A* a few years ago) fall by a staggering 230,000, according to research by Professor Alan Smithers of the Centre for Education and Employment Research.

At the other end of the spectrum, the number of grades that fall below the standard pass mark (those marked Grade 3 or below, or between a D and an E under the old system) is expected to rise by around 260,000. Speaking to I, Professor Smithers highlighted that whilst students may have felt relieved walking out of their examinations as they were created a little easier this year, but with the grades being lowered, it’s a recipe for disappointment. 

“In 2022, we can reasonably expect to see a drop in top grades, with many more failing to reach the pass level (C/4). In England, the biggest percentage fall will be at Grade 9 and many more will fall below Grade 4.”

– Professor Alan Smithers, University of Buckingham’s Centre for Education and Employment Research

He also commented that a number of pupils will, as a result of this, be missing out on the minimum grades that they need in order to progress onto their first choice of sixth forms, colleges and apprenticeships, and that this is very likely to lead to a surge in exam appeals.

What does this mean for student mental health?

Learners will be worried. Such is the effect of the pandemic on a great many of them: although we’re hopefully moving out of the other side of it, its impact will be with us for quite a while longer. The learning disruption that 2020 and 2021 saw was unprecedented, and to achieve anything in such a strange and disjointed time is cause for celebration in of itself- but many will be struggling to see it that way, especially today. 

Lower results can have a huge impact on an individual’s self-esteem. They can cause learning anxiety and lead into thought patterns that compromise mental health. Older learners are generally better equipped to understand the connection between pandemic learning and the results they’ve received whereas younger ones may still be struggling with the idea that these results are a product of some kind of personal flaw or failing- but it’s the older learners who will be experiencing some of the most pressing anxiety, about their future and the scope of choices open to them.

Today is likely to be a day where many are refreshing news apps, counting previous coursework grade points, and watching the media talk in detail about what might happen tomorrow morning. 

What can we do today?

We don’t know anything today. Take care of learners who are awaiting results, prioritise rest and mindfulness, and try to get outside if it’s possible- even if it’s only for a short walk. 

Parents and guardians should let students lead the way in whether they want to talk about their feelings about tomorrow or not- they might be feeling happy and confident, they might be trying not to think about it altogether, or they might be feeling worried. Don’t force the issue, but be open – sometimes talking about it genuinely helps, even if you can’t come to any conclusions yet. 

Some learners might feel comforted in checking out alternative options – if they’ve applied for one course with certain requirements, it might help to look at other destinations with different, slightly lower intake grades, such as a different college or training provider. Many students feel that it’s the end of the world when results seem to create a barrier between them and their preferred destination, but there are lots of FE options that have a whole strata of intake grades – checking out some alternatives might make it easier to see a path forwards, even if the direction is slightly different.

The same goes for checking out options for retakes and appealing exam grade decisions – your institution is one of the best places to find this out, but you can also find information on appeals at the .GOV portal. 

And finally, reassure them that they don’t have to share their results if they don’t want to – if they’re feeling anxious, it’s perfectly fine to open them alone, away from their friends, and not to share them on social media. They’re personal, and nobody’s business but theirs.

And tomorrow?

Educators will be anxiously waiting for these results too, especially those of them scheduled to be on-hand tomorrow. If results come in lower than expected, make sure to celebrate with learners the results that they did achieve, and focus on what went well. Although they may not have been what they wanted or even what they walked out of the exam expecting, they’re still an achievement in of themselves – and they deserve recognition, both at school and at home. 

As an educator, it may also help to reassure learners that their next steps are also going to be well aware of what kind of landscape the results that come in tomorrow are part of. They will be aware of pandemic learning issues, they will be aware of grading changes – they may be more lenient than the prospectus suggests, so like with universities last week, it’s worth giving them a call if you haven’t quite made the grade as they might still be willing to honour the place that you’ve secured. 

Both parents and educators may benefit from having conversations with learners about the exam itself. Was something more of a struggle than something else? Were they feeling anxious – are there mental health or neurodivergent needs surrounding exams that may need to be supported as they go forward, and should be mentioned to new educators? 

And always ask about the act of reading in the exam too – reading skill development may have been compromised this year, and assistive tech can help learners who don’t have dyslexia and literacy differences as well as those who do. You can check out the C-Pen Exam Reader 2 and C-Pen Reader 2 right here. 

Parents and guardians should be sensitive to the idea that they could be disappointed or embarrassed, and may not want to talk about these grades immediately (or at all), too: this means they may not want to call their relatives to discuss their results or be comfortable with you sharing them on social media, so be aware as to what they want made public.

It's crucial that learners don’t see these GCSE results as the complete picture: many still have two or even three learning stages to come, and where roads appear blocked by lower results, it’s important to help them understand that there are many other ways to get where they want to be. Many will be taking in news about the current cost-of-living crisis and be worried about their own earning futures, and it can seem like slipping even once- even if it’s more to do with the effects of the pandemic than their own skills- can have an effect on their life chances. Reassure them that they have options – from retaking GCSEs at college to switching to vocational pathways to exploring new courses and new institutions, there’s a lot that could happen next. 

For more on results day anxiety, check out Results Day, Stress and Mental Health at The Complete University Guide. You can also find out more tips and tricks for parents and guardians on talking about exams and lower or unexpected exam grades at YoungMinds.